At the end of the day, the owner of this domain name let it expire and didn’t renew it. So while there may be many legit reasons as to why they might’ve done that, one of the not-very-legit reasons could be that the domain is “dead” in some way or another. In other words, it’s no longer useful for the original owner because of a penalty or otherwise. If so, it's unlikely it'll be of any use for you as well.
If domains are real estate, then the same rules of real estate should apply. In real estate, taxes are based on the value of the property. So, a person asking $10,000 for a domain shouldn't be paying the standard $15-30 renewal fee as a person asking $200. The renewal fee should be based on the domain's value. Domainers want to claim it's like real estate without applying the most fundamental rules of real estate.
Domain names expire when someone decides to stop renewing it. They may not be available to register immediately. We update the search index every night, so some names may already be renewed or re-registered. Some may become available in a few days. Some registrars, like GoDaddy, will let you buy a name that one of their own customers expire immediately. When you find a name you like, just click on it to try backordering the name!
So how do you develop that instinct? NameBio maintains a database of over 500,000 historical domain sales (as of writing this post). They have interesting filtering features by which you can narrow down domains by price range, date sold, keywords and more. Simply sifting through the listings on NameBio long enough will quickly develop your domain appraisal “instinct”.